It has been impossible of late not to set telecoms news and commentary in the context of these troubled times for the global economy. I find myself looking for signs of our sector's resilience. In that spirit, I am keen to flag up examples of telcos committing to significant items of CAPEX. One such, reported last week in the Global Mobile Daily is Vodafone's selection of network vendor Huawei to upgrade the 2G network of the national incumbent carrier, Ghana Telecom, in which the giant cellco acquired a 70% stake back in July 2008.
At the same time as entering Ghana's mobile market, Vodafone also took over Ghana Telecom's fixed-line and broadband operation, which has around 99% of the total number of lines and around 90% share of the retail ADSL market. Ghana Telecom's mobile arm, One Touch, has been something of an underperformer. The MNO claimed 15.49% of mobile subscriptions by December 2008, according to Informa Telecoms & Media's World Cellular Information Service. This represents a slow, but steady decline in market share, which had stood at 18.29% at the end of 2006. Over this period, market-leading Scancom, a unit of the South Africa's MTN has held onto a solid lead over its four rivals. According to an article in Ghana's Chronicle newspaper last week, Vodafone will be aiming to compete more effectively in this context through a "commitment to deliver on its promise of providing a world class service to Ghanaians and to transform Ghana Telecom to an enviable position in the telecom industry."
Ghana will be among the countries to be represented at our West & Central Africa Com event, which this year will take place in Abuja, Nigeria in mid-June. The event will be a good opportunity to network and do business with all those involved in developing the region's telecoms sector.
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Middle East markets: regional players prevail in mobile licence auctions
At last month's GSM>3G Middle East conference in Dubai, at which I had the pleasure of moderating a number of the sessions, the panel of speakers included Farid Lekhal, Chief Commercial Officer at Vodafone's Partner Markets business unit. I hope his comments on mobile broadband added a useful perspective for an audience largely representing telcos headquartered in the MENA region. MENA operations in which the Newbury, UK-based giant cellco has equity currently only number two. Vodafone Egypt is an established outpost of the company's global empire. Much newer is the operation in oil and gas-rich Qatar, where I believe services are expected to be launched in March this year.
Notwithstanding Vodafone's recent foray into Qatar, My guess is that across the Middle East the entry of a group with European roots to any market selling further licenses will be comparatively rare going forward. It looks far more likely that MENA-based groups will continue to grow their footprints in the region. One recent example: Saudi Telecom acquiring Bahrain's third mobile licence for USD 230 million, according to yesterday's report from Gulf News. The story indicates that three other firms had registered interest in the auction, something which Global Mobile Daily told me only eleven days ago in a piece which led me to infer that the Bahraini regulator was planning to launch a lengthier tender process. However, yesterday's Gulf News piece suggested that STC's bid was the only one received. The story also reveals the previously unknown prospective bidders, indicating that Mohammed al-Amer, Chairman of the Telecommunications Regulatory Authority of Bahrain, had said these named Bahrain's TwoConnect and Mena Telecom as well as a consortium including France Telecom subsidiaries Orange and Jordan Telecom.
Another major intra-regional move was the recent win in Iran by the Etisalat, where the UAE-based telco has snapped up the country's third national mobile licence. My colleague Matthew Reed, Editor of our Middle East and Africa Wireless Analyst publication, feels the deal was a bargain, noting that the license fee was only US$399 million, of which Etisalat is paying 49%, in line with its 49% stake in the consortium that won the license. Etisalat’s local partner is Tameen Telecom, an Iranian public-sector investment fund. Matt notes that the new operator will reportedly pay 23.6% of revenues to the Iranian government, though MCCI and MTN Irancell pay 28%.
Matt feels that Etisalat's new operation will enjoy - and exploit - the significant competitive advantage conferred by its licence, which confers the right to be the only 3G operator in Iran for two years. Matt notes that "perhaps more than any of its peers, Etisalat has put new technology at the heart of its strategy, saying that in this way it can future-proof itself because it will be able to offer the most up-to-date services and because the latest systems are cheaper in the long run."
Matt points to the example of Egypt, where Etisalat launched a 3.5G network on its debut in the country in May 2006, becoming the country’s first 3G operator. In Egypt, Etisalat had the 3G market to itself only briefly, since Vodafone launched its own 3G network within a couple of weeks, and Egyptian market leader Mobinil launched a 3G network in September. In Iran, Etisalat will look to make the most of a much longer period of 3G exclusivity.
Matt notes that "when Etisalat launches services - in six to nine months, according to company executives - it will most likely offer HSDPA services from the outset, as it did in Egypt." Matt feels this will enable Etisalat to offer data services such as mobile broadband and target Iran’s largely untapped broadband market, without any meaningful competition.
Notwithstanding Vodafone's recent foray into Qatar, My guess is that across the Middle East the entry of a group with European roots to any market selling further licenses will be comparatively rare going forward. It looks far more likely that MENA-based groups will continue to grow their footprints in the region. One recent example: Saudi Telecom acquiring Bahrain's third mobile licence for USD 230 million, according to yesterday's report from Gulf News. The story indicates that three other firms had registered interest in the auction, something which Global Mobile Daily told me only eleven days ago in a piece which led me to infer that the Bahraini regulator was planning to launch a lengthier tender process. However, yesterday's Gulf News piece suggested that STC's bid was the only one received. The story also reveals the previously unknown prospective bidders, indicating that Mohammed al-Amer, Chairman of the Telecommunications Regulatory Authority of Bahrain, had said these named Bahrain's TwoConnect and Mena Telecom as well as a consortium including France Telecom subsidiaries Orange and Jordan Telecom.
Another major intra-regional move was the recent win in Iran by the Etisalat, where the UAE-based telco has snapped up the country's third national mobile licence. My colleague Matthew Reed, Editor of our Middle East and Africa Wireless Analyst publication, feels the deal was a bargain, noting that the license fee was only US$399 million, of which Etisalat is paying 49%, in line with its 49% stake in the consortium that won the license. Etisalat’s local partner is Tameen Telecom, an Iranian public-sector investment fund. Matt notes that the new operator will reportedly pay 23.6% of revenues to the Iranian government, though MCCI and MTN Irancell pay 28%.
Matt feels that Etisalat's new operation will enjoy - and exploit - the significant competitive advantage conferred by its licence, which confers the right to be the only 3G operator in Iran for two years. Matt notes that "perhaps more than any of its peers, Etisalat has put new technology at the heart of its strategy, saying that in this way it can future-proof itself because it will be able to offer the most up-to-date services and because the latest systems are cheaper in the long run."
Matt points to the example of Egypt, where Etisalat launched a 3.5G network on its debut in the country in May 2006, becoming the country’s first 3G operator. In Egypt, Etisalat had the 3G market to itself only briefly, since Vodafone launched its own 3G network within a couple of weeks, and Egyptian market leader Mobinil launched a 3G network in September. In Iran, Etisalat will look to make the most of a much longer period of 3G exclusivity.
Matt notes that "when Etisalat launches services - in six to nine months, according to company executives - it will most likely offer HSDPA services from the outset, as it did in Egypt." Matt feels this will enable Etisalat to offer data services such as mobile broadband and target Iran’s largely untapped broadband market, without any meaningful competition.
Informa bullish on mobile data during the economic downturn
During my time with Informa Telecoms & Media I have not had the opportunity to consult with Mark Newman, our Chief Research Officer, anything like a regularly as I would have liked. The last time I had cause to do so was in the lead-in to December's GSM>3G Middle East conference in Dubai, at which Mark was in the Chair, sharing the stage with heavy-hitters from the likes of Etisalat, Zain, Turkcell and Nawras. At that event, all of these companies made very positive noises about mobile data services in the context of the markets which they serve.
Yesterday, in Informa's telecoms.com blog, Mark reported a general feeling of optimism around mobile data worldwide. Mark began by noting the "widely held view that the mobile content sector is failing to live up to expectations, 3G has disappointed and mobile operators have thrown away an opportunity to develop a revenue stream that could ultimately surpass the voice business."
Mark feels that "if 2008 is remembered for one thing, it should be for being the year that this notion was dispelled. Until last year, the non-voice business was dominated by SMS. For a typical European operator, SMS accounted for up to 80% of non-voice revenues in previous years. But this figure has started to fall sharply. Operators such as Vodafone are seeing non-SMS services generating up to half of non-voice revenues. Investment in 3G - or 3.5G - is now generating payback."
While pointing out the erroneous nature of the idea that North America is a laggard in terms of mobile data adoption, Mark notes that Japan and South Korea continue to be the real hotbeds of enthusiasm for data services. This has been a well-worn truism for as long as I've been attending conferences and workshops themed around boosting the acceptance and profitability of mobile content, data and value-added services. I recall being asked to take over the running of a London conference about five years ago and hearing all kinds of actors in the mobile VAS value chain complaining about revenue sharing arrangements with operators and MNOs' 'walled garden' approaches. The participants were at least 90% European and content providers and aggregators were much better represented than network operators. Everyone seemed to be casting envious glances at their Japanese and Korean counterparts, speaking warmly about how the likes of NTT DoCoMo were enabling the growth of a healthy mobile content ecosystem.
Only last week, when I was asked to make a presentation on mobile social networking at the most recent Mobile Monday Istanbul meeting, I found myself referring constantly to the greater success of some of these services in the Far East. Quoting from an Informa Telecoms & Media report, I told the Turkish audience that according to a Sydney Morning Herald article published in December 2007, half of Japan’s top 10 works of fiction are now written on mobile handsets. These works, called keitai shousetsu’, each sells an average of 400,000 copies and are written entirely on cell phones complete with emoticons and common SMS abbreviations.
Today, according to Mark Newman, the ratio of prepaid subscribers to postpaid goes a long way toward accounting for the differences among markets in mobile content adoption and usage. Postpaid subscriptions account for 99% of all subs in South Korea, 94% in Japan and 90% in the US. Mark points out that these are the countries with the highest mobile data ARPUs.
Yesterday, in Informa's telecoms.com blog, Mark reported a general feeling of optimism around mobile data worldwide. Mark began by noting the "widely held view that the mobile content sector is failing to live up to expectations, 3G has disappointed and mobile operators have thrown away an opportunity to develop a revenue stream that could ultimately surpass the voice business."
Mark feels that "if 2008 is remembered for one thing, it should be for being the year that this notion was dispelled. Until last year, the non-voice business was dominated by SMS. For a typical European operator, SMS accounted for up to 80% of non-voice revenues in previous years. But this figure has started to fall sharply. Operators such as Vodafone are seeing non-SMS services generating up to half of non-voice revenues. Investment in 3G - or 3.5G - is now generating payback."
While pointing out the erroneous nature of the idea that North America is a laggard in terms of mobile data adoption, Mark notes that Japan and South Korea continue to be the real hotbeds of enthusiasm for data services. This has been a well-worn truism for as long as I've been attending conferences and workshops themed around boosting the acceptance and profitability of mobile content, data and value-added services. I recall being asked to take over the running of a London conference about five years ago and hearing all kinds of actors in the mobile VAS value chain complaining about revenue sharing arrangements with operators and MNOs' 'walled garden' approaches. The participants were at least 90% European and content providers and aggregators were much better represented than network operators. Everyone seemed to be casting envious glances at their Japanese and Korean counterparts, speaking warmly about how the likes of NTT DoCoMo were enabling the growth of a healthy mobile content ecosystem.
Only last week, when I was asked to make a presentation on mobile social networking at the most recent Mobile Monday Istanbul meeting, I found myself referring constantly to the greater success of some of these services in the Far East. Quoting from an Informa Telecoms & Media report, I told the Turkish audience that according to a Sydney Morning Herald article published in December 2007, half of Japan’s top 10 works of fiction are now written on mobile handsets. These works, called keitai shousetsu’, each sells an average of 400,000 copies and are written entirely on cell phones complete with emoticons and common SMS abbreviations.
Today, according to Mark Newman, the ratio of prepaid subscribers to postpaid goes a long way toward accounting for the differences among markets in mobile content adoption and usage. Postpaid subscriptions account for 99% of all subs in South Korea, 94% in Japan and 90% in the US. Mark points out that these are the countries with the highest mobile data ARPUs.
Overall, Mark feels that even if the most pessimistic scenarios for the economic downturn come to pass, it seems unlikely that the mobile content sector will stop growing. Mark points out that 2008 saw a switch to flat-rate and mobile Internet models and believes that 2009 will see this trend continue and will see the arrival of more-affordable mobile Internet devices. For Mark "the bigger uncertainty is whether mobile operators will accept a role as dumb pipes rather than continuing to invest in their own services and smart-pipe strategies. "
Today I should complete handing over my notes to colleagues who will be developing our annual Russia & CIS Com conference, set to take place in Moscow in early June. With the Russian MNOs having now deployed 3G networks in most major cities, our research respondents have expressed the desire to use the event to debate how best to accelerate the process of getting a return on these investments by encouraging customers to accept mobile data and content services.
More on (mobile social) networking in Istanbul
Last week I had the great pleasure of visiting the shiny new Microsoft MEA office in Istanbul, which was the venue for this month's local Mobile Monday meeting. Part of the pleasure was being reminded of the warm hospitality I always experience when meeting telecoms people from Turkey. The pre-meeting drinks, nibbles and chatter session yielded lots of interesting new contacts. Among these were representatives of the country's three mobile operators and owners/directors of a number of value-added services companies. Mobile banking solutions seemed to be quite a well represented area so perhaps this is something set to gain traction in Turkey.
Ostensibly, I was there to speak on behalf of Informa Telecoms & Media, making a presentation on the theme of mobile social networking. This was drawn from a comprehensive report on that subject, an updated second edition of which is currently being prepared. With a 25-minute time slot, I was only able to offer a few of the ideas covered in the report. A number of those present were kind enough to indicate that they had found the presentation helpful. Judge for yourself. Natali Yeşilbahar, the Mobile Monday Istanbul organiser, has made the slides available here. If you want the notes which I used to provide examples and expanded comments, please let me know any time.
Mine was one of two speeches made that evening, the other being offered by Mehmet Arslantunalı, General Manager of Mobilife magazine, a telco sector publication in the local vernacular. Mehmet's presentation was also made in Turkish so I was not able to gain from it. Those of you who do understand that language are invited to have a look at the slides and fill me in on what I missed!
I understand that Microsoft is a new member of the roster of companies that have hosted Mobile Mobile Monday Istanbul meetings. I believe that the privilege usually falls to one or other of the MNOs - Turkcell, Avea or Vodafone. I am pleased that Informa Telecoms & Media will be joining this exalted company in April, at which time we will be providing the meeting facilities and laying on the catering. The venue will be the city's Mövenpick Hotel, which will also be the home of this year's Eurasia Com conference and exhibition - our annual gathering of senior telecoms people not only from Turkey but also from the CIS markets of the Caspian and Central Asian regions (Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan etc.). Natali was kind enough to allow me drum up further local support for the event.
A number of the meetings which I arranged during the rest of my short stay should have a positive impact on the conference element of the Eurasia Com event. One which is very straightforward is the addition of a further speaker from Turkcell. Given the extensive coverage given to the issue of MVNOs possibly hitting the Turkish market in the near future, I am delighted to welcome Dr. Deniz Tunçalp to the panel of speaker. Deniz is in charge of the market-leading cellco's discussions with prospective MVNOs and as well as outlining his thoughts on barriers and opportunities for potential virtual operators in Turkey, he has offered his assistance with encouraging these companies to attend. It is my understanding that these players will come from an interesting mix of non-telecoms brands.
All in all, another useful and enjoyable trip to Istanbul - but I still haven't found time to do more than scratch the surface in terms of really enjoying the city's countless tourist sights, historical treasures and entertainment. Next time, I hope...
(Mobile social) networking in Istanbul
Greetings from Istanbul. This evening I will be speaking at the January meeting of the local Mobile Monday chapter, sharing just a few of the ideas detailed in our (soon-to-be-updated) report on Mobile Social Networking. The organiser, Natali Yesilbahar (who works with B2B social software platform XING) tells me that services of this kind are not yet a commercial reality here in Turkey and that there is therefore likely to be a good level of interest in my short presentation. I only hope I am able to answer questions and contribute to discussions to the satisfaction of the group attending tonight. I understand this will include managers from this country's three mobile operators (Turkcell, Avea and Vodafone) as well as companies actives in the mobile VAS space, of which there seem to be a good number headquartered hereabouts.
Wearing my marketing hat, I hope that a consequence of attending this evening's meeting will be a locally raised awareness of our Eurasia Com conference and exhibition, which will take place here in Istanbul 31 March & 1 April. Opening with a Keynote Address from Turk Telekom CEO Dr Paul Doany, the event will gather telecoms execs from its host country and many more from the CIS markets of the Caspian and Central Asian regions.
Wearing my marketing hat, I hope that a consequence of attending this evening's meeting will be a locally raised awareness of our Eurasia Com conference and exhibition, which will take place here in Istanbul 31 March & 1 April. Opening with a Keynote Address from Turk Telekom CEO Dr Paul Doany, the event will gather telecoms execs from its host country and many more from the CIS markets of the Caspian and Central Asian regions.
Impressions of day one of our GSM>3G Middle East event
Writing a blog entry on Christmas morning? A sure sign of a workaholic? Maybe for some. In my case, it's more to do with seeking some relief from watching my 3-year old son's Mr Men DVD for what seems like the zillionth time. Having risen at just before 5 a.m., the young man concerned has insisted on yet another run through every single episode of the classic kids' cartoon. I am not allowed to leave the room, it seems, so I might as well apply the brain to something other than the antics of Mr. Grumpy, Mr Bump et al.
This is, therefore an opportunity to share some of what happened at this year's GSM>3G Middle East conference and exhibition in Dubai, which kept my team and I busy on 15-16 December. I have time now to reflect on the event's first day - and will go over the second day's discussions once the seasonal round of visits to family and friends is over for another year.
The conference element of the event was opened by the Plenary Session Chairman, our very own Mark Newman, who spoke about how the Middle East's telecoms sector is booming, with mobile penetration set to grow by nearly 20 per cent to 77 per cent over the next 5 years. This bullish mood was echoed by the UAE's largest telco (and official endorser/sponsor of our event) Etisalat, whose Chief Corporate Affairs Officer Nasser Bin Obood used the Keynote Address to flag up the company's expansion plans. While I was on a short sunshine break immediately after the Dubai show, I got word of the next plank of this expansion strategy. Global Mobile Daily this week told me that Etisalat has submitted the highest bid for Iran's third mobile license, as part of a consortium that includes Iran-based Tamin Telecom.
According to Etisalat, the Iranian Communications Regulatory Authority has placed the operator "first among others in terms of financial offer." Etisalat added that the winner will be announced after official approval is granted. In a statement, Etisalat said it expects Iran's mobile market to have "a very promising future," because of the low penetration in the country, which has a population of 73 million.
Iran first began moves to launch its third GSM-license tender in August. However, the tender has remained overshadowed by legal wrangles after Turkey's Turkcell initiated proceedings in the International Court for Arbitration over its failed attempts to launch a network in Iran.
Foreign players known to be interested in entering the Iranian market include Russia's three major mobile players: MTS, VimpelCom, and MegaFon. Regarding the latter, I can personally testify to the Russian cellco not being coy about its interest in the Iranian licence. Back in June, I welcomed MegaFon's Deputy CEO Sergei Soldatenkov to our annual Russia/CIS event in Moscow, at which he was one of the key speakers. Later at the same event, Mr Soldatenkov was among the most notable people firing questions to a speaker from an Iranian delegation, which was on hand to raise the visibility of this and other investment opportunities in their country's telecoms sector. I am looking forward to another opportunity to meet Mr Soldatenkov in Istanbul. On March 31, he will be among the leading speakers at our Eurasia Com event, the Com World Series gathering of telecoms execs who have an interest in the markets of Central Asia, the Caucasus region and the conference's host country itself. Soldatenkov heads up the company which manages MegaFon's international subsidiaries, so he was a great choice to represent the company at an event whose audience will be drawn from the markets into which Russian cellcos first expanded their footprints. While I was out of the country, I learned that the Eurasia Com Plenary Session roundtable discussion, in which Mr Soldatenkov will be taking part, has a further confirmed participant. Joining the discussion will be a genuine mobile sector pioneer, Sir Julian Horn-Smith, who retired as Deputy Chief Executive of Vodafone Group plc in August 2006, having served with Vodafone since 1984 and for a decade as a board director, latterly from 2001-05 as Chief Operating Officer. One of Sir Julian's current roles is serving as an Advisory Board member for Altimo, the Russian investment group whose assets include stakes in Vimpelcom, MegaFon, Kyivstar (Ukraine) and Turkcell.
Another Keynote Session speaker in Dubai this month was Ross Cormack, CEO of Omani MNO Nawras, who spoke about how his company has benefited from being first to market with 3.5G services: "We had to make sure we had customers that wanted the service and services that they would want. So we listened to customers and responded to customers. The result has been pleasing growth and it's not as though we're going up against an unpopular competitor."
What was evident from the first day's discussions is that mobile broadband in the Middle East is heavily tipped to grow as strongly as in Europe. During the lead in to the event, I had the pleasure of exchanging correspondence with Dr. Slim Saidi of Zain's new KSA operation. Slim was instrumental in setting up the Zain Saudi Arabia CEO as a day two speaker and stood in for Dr. Marwan for a day one roundtable discussion, during which he indicated that there is significant potential for mobile broadband and that it is now just a matter of reaching those subscribers and providing access.
This rallying call was picked up by Farid Lekhal, Chief Commercial Officer of Vodafone Partner Markets, who said the way forward is to exploit the potential of the latest internet-capable devices and champion the accessibility of on-portal and third party services.
Vodafone has had the opportunity to learn from the mistakes made in its partner markets, leading the operator to conclude that third party applications do not cannibalise traffic on the network. "On the contrary, they expand it, and there is still room for operators to have portals," he said.
Tayfun Cataltepe, Chief Corporate Strategy Officer at Turkcell, shared the other operators' enthusiasm for internet mobility, declaring that, "Mobile broadband doesn't mean you have to be a dumb pipe."
"Mobile broadband is the future of telecoms on the whole, and the term 'broadband' will even fall out of usage as all connectivity will become 'broad'," he said. Cataltepe revealed that the Turkish cellco will launch 3G services in June 2009, and hinted that it would enable third parties to provided services on the network as a core part of its strategy. "The classical VAS (value added service) model is based on revenue sharing," said Cataltepe. "Those with the most creative services will make the most money, so operators will need to seek a revenue sharing agreement," he said.
Zain's Saidi agreed: "Access is a commodity now, so people are willing to pay for services they use. When the customers demand services it's up to the operators to deliver," he said. Also on the panel was Fouad Brahim Boumakh, president and CEO of Nano-Techpower, a start up which specialises in using nanotechnology to improve the battery performance of wireless devices, who summed up the sentiment over mobile broadband: "The name of the broadband game is any application, anywhere, on any device." Fouad approached me about joining the discussion a couple of weeks ahead of the event, and I was pleased to accept his proposal when I learned that his company is set to roll out nationwide WiMAX-based services in Algeria. I felt that adding this kind of new entrant to the discussion would usefully broaden the perspectives represented on the panel.
Later the same day, I enjoyed personally moderating one of the conference breakout sessions, whose broad theme was around how operators will need to refine further their marketing and product strategies as their markets become yet more competitive. It was a pleasure to introduce the various speakers, to chip in with questions where I could and to encourage audience members to do likewise. I am very keen for guests at our events to maximise the opportunity to engage with the speakers we assemble for them. I hope I was able to achieve this to a useful degree. Also, sitting up on stage in front of a large audience is actually easier than the many, many tasks executed by my Informa TM colleagues on-site at the event, all working hard to make sure delegates' time with us is maximally enjoyable and productive. At an event of this scale, the guys and girls of the Com World Series team really do perform brilliantly and I'd like to thank them all here for their good humour, good fellowship and hard graft.
Among the speakers I was personally able to introduce was someone with whom I've maintained an on-and-off correspondence for at least a couple of years. It was therefore a particular pleasure finally to meet Tushar Maheshwari in the flesh. Tushar is now Chief Commercial Officer of Warid Telecom Uganda, who picked up a gong at our recent Africa Com Awards in Cape Town. Tushar took questions after his speech and then dashed off to another awards ceremony elsewhere in Dubai to collect yet another prize on behalf of his company. As these accolades clearly demonstrate, and as his presentation made clear, Warid have had an impressive first year in Uganda. Tushar is clearly a man unafraid of a challenge. When I first connected with him, he was in the CCO role at Afghan Wireless, a competitor in a uniquely challenging market.
Across the two days in Dubai, aorund 2,000 people from operators, service providers, vendors, regulators and the media gathered at GSM>3G Middle East, which we subtitled Towards a Broadband World in order to make it clear that in the context of many forms of convergence (fixed-mobile, telco-media, telco-IT etc.) we feel it's high time to widen the audience beyond the cellular sector players who have supported the event for a decade-and-a-half.
This is, therefore an opportunity to share some of what happened at this year's GSM>3G Middle East conference and exhibition in Dubai, which kept my team and I busy on 15-16 December. I have time now to reflect on the event's first day - and will go over the second day's discussions once the seasonal round of visits to family and friends is over for another year.
The conference element of the event was opened by the Plenary Session Chairman, our very own Mark Newman, who spoke about how the Middle East's telecoms sector is booming, with mobile penetration set to grow by nearly 20 per cent to 77 per cent over the next 5 years. This bullish mood was echoed by the UAE's largest telco (and official endorser/sponsor of our event) Etisalat, whose Chief Corporate Affairs Officer Nasser Bin Obood used the Keynote Address to flag up the company's expansion plans. While I was on a short sunshine break immediately after the Dubai show, I got word of the next plank of this expansion strategy. Global Mobile Daily this week told me that Etisalat has submitted the highest bid for Iran's third mobile license, as part of a consortium that includes Iran-based Tamin Telecom.
According to Etisalat, the Iranian Communications Regulatory Authority has placed the operator "first among others in terms of financial offer." Etisalat added that the winner will be announced after official approval is granted. In a statement, Etisalat said it expects Iran's mobile market to have "a very promising future," because of the low penetration in the country, which has a population of 73 million.
Iran first began moves to launch its third GSM-license tender in August. However, the tender has remained overshadowed by legal wrangles after Turkey's Turkcell initiated proceedings in the International Court for Arbitration over its failed attempts to launch a network in Iran.
Foreign players known to be interested in entering the Iranian market include Russia's three major mobile players: MTS, VimpelCom, and MegaFon. Regarding the latter, I can personally testify to the Russian cellco not being coy about its interest in the Iranian licence. Back in June, I welcomed MegaFon's Deputy CEO Sergei Soldatenkov to our annual Russia/CIS event in Moscow, at which he was one of the key speakers. Later at the same event, Mr Soldatenkov was among the most notable people firing questions to a speaker from an Iranian delegation, which was on hand to raise the visibility of this and other investment opportunities in their country's telecoms sector. I am looking forward to another opportunity to meet Mr Soldatenkov in Istanbul. On March 31, he will be among the leading speakers at our Eurasia Com event, the Com World Series gathering of telecoms execs who have an interest in the markets of Central Asia, the Caucasus region and the conference's host country itself. Soldatenkov heads up the company which manages MegaFon's international subsidiaries, so he was a great choice to represent the company at an event whose audience will be drawn from the markets into which Russian cellcos first expanded their footprints. While I was out of the country, I learned that the Eurasia Com Plenary Session roundtable discussion, in which Mr Soldatenkov will be taking part, has a further confirmed participant. Joining the discussion will be a genuine mobile sector pioneer, Sir Julian Horn-Smith, who retired as Deputy Chief Executive of Vodafone Group plc in August 2006, having served with Vodafone since 1984 and for a decade as a board director, latterly from 2001-05 as Chief Operating Officer. One of Sir Julian's current roles is serving as an Advisory Board member for Altimo, the Russian investment group whose assets include stakes in Vimpelcom, MegaFon, Kyivstar (Ukraine) and Turkcell.
Another Keynote Session speaker in Dubai this month was Ross Cormack, CEO of Omani MNO Nawras, who spoke about how his company has benefited from being first to market with 3.5G services: "We had to make sure we had customers that wanted the service and services that they would want. So we listened to customers and responded to customers. The result has been pleasing growth and it's not as though we're going up against an unpopular competitor."
What was evident from the first day's discussions is that mobile broadband in the Middle East is heavily tipped to grow as strongly as in Europe. During the lead in to the event, I had the pleasure of exchanging correspondence with Dr. Slim Saidi of Zain's new KSA operation. Slim was instrumental in setting up the Zain Saudi Arabia CEO as a day two speaker and stood in for Dr. Marwan for a day one roundtable discussion, during which he indicated that there is significant potential for mobile broadband and that it is now just a matter of reaching those subscribers and providing access.
This rallying call was picked up by Farid Lekhal, Chief Commercial Officer of Vodafone Partner Markets, who said the way forward is to exploit the potential of the latest internet-capable devices and champion the accessibility of on-portal and third party services.
Vodafone has had the opportunity to learn from the mistakes made in its partner markets, leading the operator to conclude that third party applications do not cannibalise traffic on the network. "On the contrary, they expand it, and there is still room for operators to have portals," he said.
Tayfun Cataltepe, Chief Corporate Strategy Officer at Turkcell, shared the other operators' enthusiasm for internet mobility, declaring that, "Mobile broadband doesn't mean you have to be a dumb pipe."
"Mobile broadband is the future of telecoms on the whole, and the term 'broadband' will even fall out of usage as all connectivity will become 'broad'," he said. Cataltepe revealed that the Turkish cellco will launch 3G services in June 2009, and hinted that it would enable third parties to provided services on the network as a core part of its strategy. "The classical VAS (value added service) model is based on revenue sharing," said Cataltepe. "Those with the most creative services will make the most money, so operators will need to seek a revenue sharing agreement," he said.
Zain's Saidi agreed: "Access is a commodity now, so people are willing to pay for services they use. When the customers demand services it's up to the operators to deliver," he said. Also on the panel was Fouad Brahim Boumakh, president and CEO of Nano-Techpower, a start up which specialises in using nanotechnology to improve the battery performance of wireless devices, who summed up the sentiment over mobile broadband: "The name of the broadband game is any application, anywhere, on any device." Fouad approached me about joining the discussion a couple of weeks ahead of the event, and I was pleased to accept his proposal when I learned that his company is set to roll out nationwide WiMAX-based services in Algeria. I felt that adding this kind of new entrant to the discussion would usefully broaden the perspectives represented on the panel.
Later the same day, I enjoyed personally moderating one of the conference breakout sessions, whose broad theme was around how operators will need to refine further their marketing and product strategies as their markets become yet more competitive. It was a pleasure to introduce the various speakers, to chip in with questions where I could and to encourage audience members to do likewise. I am very keen for guests at our events to maximise the opportunity to engage with the speakers we assemble for them. I hope I was able to achieve this to a useful degree. Also, sitting up on stage in front of a large audience is actually easier than the many, many tasks executed by my Informa TM colleagues on-site at the event, all working hard to make sure delegates' time with us is maximally enjoyable and productive. At an event of this scale, the guys and girls of the Com World Series team really do perform brilliantly and I'd like to thank them all here for their good humour, good fellowship and hard graft.
Among the speakers I was personally able to introduce was someone with whom I've maintained an on-and-off correspondence for at least a couple of years. It was therefore a particular pleasure finally to meet Tushar Maheshwari in the flesh. Tushar is now Chief Commercial Officer of Warid Telecom Uganda, who picked up a gong at our recent Africa Com Awards in Cape Town. Tushar took questions after his speech and then dashed off to another awards ceremony elsewhere in Dubai to collect yet another prize on behalf of his company. As these accolades clearly demonstrate, and as his presentation made clear, Warid have had an impressive first year in Uganda. Tushar is clearly a man unafraid of a challenge. When I first connected with him, he was in the CCO role at Afghan Wireless, a competitor in a uniquely challenging market.
Across the two days in Dubai, aorund 2,000 people from operators, service providers, vendors, regulators and the media gathered at GSM>3G Middle East, which we subtitled Towards a Broadband World in order to make it clear that in the context of many forms of convergence (fixed-mobile, telco-media, telco-IT etc.) we feel it's high time to widen the audience beyond the cellular sector players who have supported the event for a decade-and-a-half.
Turkish 3G awards: no surprises
The stalling and wrangling is finally over: the Turkish Government has awarded 3G licenses. The surprises? None.
As confirmed by today's Global Mobile Daily, the three established cellcos, Turkcell, Vodafone and Avea, all bagged licenses, raising between them a total of €822 million (US$1.04 billion) for the state coffers.
Market-leading Turkcell (55.54% of the subscriber base, according to WCIS as of Sep 2008) won the ‘A’ licence with the largest bandwidth block of 40MHz, with a bid of €358 million. Vodafone Turkey (26.56% market share) was awarded a license in the 35MHz spectrum band after paying €250 million, while third-placed operator Avea (17.90% market share) was awarded a 30MHz operating license €214 million. The auction for a fourth bid was cancelled due to a lack of suitable bidders.
The 3G licensing process will not, therefore, introduce any new MNOs onto the Turkish market, as has been the case in one European country. A Romanian 3G licence was awarded to RCS & RDS, a cable MSO and broadband service provider with no previous mobility proposition. Having launched 3G services in December 2007, RCS & RDS has now built a mobile market share of just under 4.5% according to WCIS figures.
If operators do face any new competition for subscribers in the recently-initiated era of MNP in Turkey, this will come in the form of MVNOs, which look set to enter the market at some stage in 2009. Those who track the Turkish market will not be surprised to learn that MNO, MVNE and MVNO strategies are set to be discussed at length at our Istanbul Eurasia Com conference (31 March & 1 April 2009), which will gather delegates from Caspian and Central Asian markets as well as from the host country.
As confirmed by today's Global Mobile Daily, the three established cellcos, Turkcell, Vodafone and Avea, all bagged licenses, raising between them a total of €822 million (US$1.04 billion) for the state coffers.
Market-leading Turkcell (55.54% of the subscriber base, according to WCIS as of Sep 2008) won the ‘A’ licence with the largest bandwidth block of 40MHz, with a bid of €358 million. Vodafone Turkey (26.56% market share) was awarded a license in the 35MHz spectrum band after paying €250 million, while third-placed operator Avea (17.90% market share) was awarded a 30MHz operating license €214 million. The auction for a fourth bid was cancelled due to a lack of suitable bidders.
The 3G licensing process will not, therefore, introduce any new MNOs onto the Turkish market, as has been the case in one European country. A Romanian 3G licence was awarded to RCS & RDS, a cable MSO and broadband service provider with no previous mobility proposition. Having launched 3G services in December 2007, RCS & RDS has now built a mobile market share of just under 4.5% according to WCIS figures.
If operators do face any new competition for subscribers in the recently-initiated era of MNP in Turkey, this will come in the form of MVNOs, which look set to enter the market at some stage in 2009. Those who track the Turkish market will not be surprised to learn that MNO, MVNE and MVNO strategies are set to be discussed at length at our Istanbul Eurasia Com conference (31 March & 1 April 2009), which will gather delegates from Caspian and Central Asian markets as well as from the host country.
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