... and now for good news from.... Europe?

In the context of this global economic slowdown, is it very surprising that someone who is involved in delivering audiences of telecoms operator execs to paying sponsors from tech vendors has dedicated recent blog entries to digging out good news about new licenses and new network deployments? The good news I've found has come from emerging markets and a recurrent trend, which I reflected on earlier this week, has been MENA region-based groups taking advantage of the good deals on offer in the current climate.

Yesterday's Telecompaper newsletter, however, came with reasonably positive news from a telco whose footprint is largely confined to Europe. This concerns T-Mobile, whose CEO Hamid Akhavan has told the Netherlands-based news and research house that the cellco "has yet to see a direct impact on its results from the economic slowdown and expects to maintain its performance in 2009."

Akhavan told Telecompaper that the group "is focused on growing service revenues, while maintaining its profit margins [and that] growth will come from innovative services such as its mobile data service Web’n’walk and new data-driven phones such as Apple’s iPhone and the G1 Android handset." However, in contrast to the expansionist agenda of Middle Eastern telecoms groups, for T-Mobile International "mergers and acquisitions are not on the agenda at the moment, due to the high cost of capital, according to the CEO."

T-Mobile International is currently present in only one non-European market, the USA. In February 2008, the US operation extended its coverage to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands via the acquisition of SunCom Wireless, an operator owith more than 1.1 million customers across these territories and the mainland US states of North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee and Georgia.

In Europe, T-Mobile's expansion from its German base has largely been eastwards. Aside from Dutch and UK operations, the T-Mobile footprint has spread over time to Austia and into the former Warsaw Pact countries and parts of former Yugoslavia. Both with Informa Telecoms & Media and in other roles, I have been closely involved in setting up CEE region networking, discussion and exhibition events in the telecoms space. In doing so, over more than five years I have had watched a number of T-Mobile rebranding exercises in this territory.

While we have decided that a CEE-themed event is not longer an important element of the Com World Series, we continue to provide networking and discussion opportunities in this part of Europe, albeit in an online setting. Our thriving CEE Com LinkedIn group is a useful forum for finding new contacts in the region and joining them in useful discussions. If you do business in Central and Eastern Europe, I would urge you to join up.

Turk Telekom to grow business into Macedonia?

Looking back over some of the stories which popped up while I was away on holiday, I noticed that Global Mobile Daily picked up news of the Turkish incumbent fixed-line operator's interest in acquiring the 2nd-placed MNO in the small market of Macedonia (population approx 2 million). I am not clear to what extent any new owner (other interested parties seem to include Telekom Austria and Telekom Slovenije) would be able to grow the business. In addition to the Balkan country being a market of limited size, it is one for which our WCIS reports mobile penetration as 112.17% as of September 2008. Moreover, first-placed T-Mobile has established a commanding lead in terms of market share. According to WCIS, the Deutsche Telekom-aligned cellco owns 67.88% of subscriptions versus market shares of 32.13% and 12.16% for Cosmofon and VIP respectively.

VIP is part of the mobilkom austria group, itself a subsidiary of Telekom Austria - so if the Austrian incumbent's reported interest in Cosmofon is for real, I would assume that they would be thinking in terms of consolidating the Macedonian market down to two players.

Cosmofon's current owner is the Cosmote group, a company controlled by Greek incumbent carrier OTE. Assuming that the Greek group welcomes the interest being shown in its Macedonian outpost, this seems to represent another retreat from an East European market, OTE having not long quit Armenia. OTE sold its interest in Armentel, that country's then-monopolist wireline carrier (and associated mobile business) to Vimpelcom of Russia in late 2006.

If the Cosmofon story has played out by the end of March, and if Turk Telekom prevails, I daresay delegates at our Eurasia Com event in Istanbul will be keen to ask the company's CEO Dr. Paul Doany where the acquisition fits into his broader strategy.